Clinical studyA population-based study of the long-term risks associated with atrial fibrillation: 20-year follow-up of the Renfrew/Paisley study
Section snippets
Sample and baseline data
Between 1972 and 1976, 7052 men and 8354 women, representing 80% of subjects aged 45–64 years residing in the towns of Renfrew and Paisley, in the west of Scotland, took part in this epidemiologic study (12). Each subject’s demographic profile and cardiorespiratory health status were documented 12, 13. Angina pectoris (classified as none, possible, or definite by the Rose angina questionnaire) and chronic bronchitis (determined by the Medical Research Council’s chronic bronchitis questionnaire)
Results
The 100 subjects with atrial fibrillation at baseline (1972–1976) were older and had more cardiovascular disease, ECG abnormalities, and a lower mean adjusted FEV1 than did subjects without atrial fibrillation (Table 1). A total of 15 subjects (10 men) had atrial fibrillation in the absence of any concurrent signs and symptoms of cardiovascular disease (“lone” atrial fibrillation). There were several significant differences between subjects with lone atrial fibrillation, the remainder of those
Discussion
A single ECG recording of atrial fibrillation in a middle-aged woman increases her risk of a cardiovascular event fivefold in the next two decades; in men, the risk is increased twofold. Much of this excess risk is related to stroke and heart failure. Atrial fibrillation is also an independent predictor of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in both sexes. However, in the absence of concomitant cardiac disease (i.e., lone atrial fibrillation), the adverse effects of atrial fibrillation are
Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge the contribution of Pauline MacKinnon, who is responsible for updating and maintaining the Renfrew/Paisley cohort database.
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Professor Stewart is supported by the National Heart Foundation of Australia. Carole Hart is supported by grants from Chest, Heart, and Stroke Scotland and The Stroke Association, London, United Kingdom.