The fourth stage of the epidemiologic transition: the age of delayed degenerative diseases

Milbank Q. 1986;64(3):355-91.

Abstract

Gains in longevity in the United States since the mid-nineteenth century occurred as a result of an epidemiologic transition: deaths from infectious diseases were replaced by deaths from degenerative diseases. Recent trends in cause-specific mortality suggest a distinct new stage, one of postponement of degenerative diseases. Projections based on these data must be applied cautiously; their implication for health and social policies are likely to be profound.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Actuarial Analysis
  • Age Factors
  • Chronic Disease / epidemiology
  • Chronic Disease / mortality*
  • Epidemiology / trends*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Life Expectancy
  • Longevity
  • Male
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Morbidity
  • Population Dynamics
  • United States
  • Vital Statistics